Market Traffic Light
A first market layer for risk and volatility
Calm VIX plus calm VVIX usually points to a more relaxed market regime. If both rise together, the regime often becomes less stable. MOVE, GVZ, VXSLV, and OVX add risk context outside equities.
Signal 1
Volatility indices
The first version focuses on VIX, VVIX, MOVE, GVZ, VXSLV, and OVX.
Right next to the current quote we show a rough historical rating based on the latest value inside the past 12 months.
Conclusion
- VIX US equity risk and 30-day implied volatility on SPX.
- VVIX Nervousness inside the volatility complex itself.
- MOVE Expected U.S. rates and bond-market volatility from option-implied yield volatility.
- GVZ Gold volatility; elevated readings can point to option seller opportunities in GLD or GC.
- VXSLV Silver volatility; elevated readings can point to option seller opportunities in SI or SLV.
- OVX Oil volatility around geopolitics, growth, and supply.
Pro tip: SVOL
SVOL is the Simplify Volatility Premium ETF. It is not a volatility index, but a tradable short-volatility product built around the VIX futures premium.
The strategy targets roughly -0.2x to -0.3x inverse exposure to short-term VIX futures. That can generate income in calmer volatility regimes, but it can still suffer meaningfully during a real volatility shock.
For the traffic light, SVOL is therefore more of a product example. VIX, VVIX, and the VIX term structure remain the cleaner signals.