What move is priced in?
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Expected move in USD: —
The feed supplies a percentage, not a stock quote. Your optional price input converts that percentage range into USD; it does not reprice the option chain.
Short Strangle · 2 Legs
Place the short put at or below the lower boundary and the short call at or above the upper boundary. Select actual listed strikes outward from those boundaries in your broker.
- Short Put—
- Short Call—
Without long legs, losses can be substantial: theoretically unlimited on the call side and down to a zero stock price on the put side. Allow for margin requirements and potential assignment.
Iron Condor · 4 Legs
The short legs follow the same range. A lower-strike long put and a higher-strike long call limit risk on both sides. Choose wing widths deliberately; the expected move does not determine them.
- Long PutBelow the selected short put
- Short Put—
- Short Call—
- Long CallAbove the selected short call
Use the same underlying and expiry with matching contract sizes. Actual risk limits depend on wing width, net premium and correct execution of every leg.
Method and limitations
EarningsWatcher supplies a precomputed options-implied earnings move. A common estimate is the ATM call plus ATM put, divided by the stock price. We use the published percentage and do not calculate option premiums.
Setups open only for earnings today or tomorrow, using the Berlin calendar date. A date mismatch, old data or a missing expected move does not trigger an estimate from historical averages.
The feed does not specify an option expiry or listed strikes. In your broker, check the first suitable expiry that includes the earnings reaction. For an after-close release it must be later than the announcement date.
The range is not a profit zone or a guaranteed 68% interval. Without leg premiums we calculate neither break-even nor maximum profit or loss. Price gaps can substantially exceed the range.